Will the chance to lock in help for their upstate brethren be enough incentive for New York’s Democratic-led legislature to accept a minimal-change congressional map from the state’s redistricting commission?
The map’s less than 24 hours old. Legislative leaders haven’t publicly said when they’ll schedule the vote, though up in Albany it’s expected to happen Feb. 26 since candidates are supposed to be able to start circulating petitions on Feb. 27.
It’ll be tempting for them to draw a more partisan map in hopes of upping their party’s chances of winning the four seats they need for a US House majority (presumably led by a Speaker Hakeem Jeffries of Brooklyn). With control of Congress at stake, why unilaterally disarm when North Carolina’s Republican legislature enacted a ruthlessly partisan map that will net them three or four seats?
Here’s the flip side: Republicans would surely bottle up a more dramatic shift in New York courts, which rejected a Democratic gerrymander in 2022 before the current lines were drawn by a third-party expert. Besides, as Tom Suozzi (D) showed when he was elected this week to replace George Santos (R), swing seats can scoot back.
New congressional district map proposed for New York
Source: New York Independent Redistricting Commission
The proposed new map would make no changes to the districts now held by Reps. Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler and Nick LaLota. D’Esposito and Lawler already are in tossup races.
Coming out ahead: Rep. Marc Molinaro (R) would get a more favorable district, though it would still be narrowly pro-Biden. Offset: It would give more Democratic voters to Rep. Brandon Williams (R) in the Syracuse area. — Greg Giroux
COMINGS AND GOINGS
Here in the newsroom we call it the “depart chart” — a running list of federal lawmakers who are seeking other office, ready to retire, or who just don’t want to try for another term. (If you’re the kind of subscriber who reads all the way to the bottom, you’ve noticed it in every edition of this newsletter.)
This week added two more names to the minus column: Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) and Homeland Security Chairman Mark Green (R-Tenn.) Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), who moved to the running-for-Senate column a week ago, dropped out of that race and said he’s undecided about what’s next, so no word yet on whether he’s staying out of the House race.
Meanwhile, Democrats claimed one of the empty New York seats and a special election was set for April 30 to fill the rest of the term of ex-Rep. Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.). Read more:
TEXAS: Challenger’s Edge
The unsuccessful mayoral bid of Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) inadvertently helped her leading House primary challenger. The campaign of former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards ended 2023 with $856,000 cash on hand, versus about $223,000 for Lee.
She “just got out of another campaign, so didn’t have enough time to fundraise,” neighboring Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas) told Punchbowl. “She may have a real race on her hands.”
MICHIGAN: Chief Out
Former Rep. Mike Rogers (no, not that Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.)) boasts the support of GOP establishment donors as the field narrows in Michigan’s open Senate race.
The powerful megadonor DeVos family and three dozen current and former members of Congress — including members of Senate GOP leadership — have donated to the former Intelligence Committee chairman’s campaign to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D).
Rogers likely won’t be alone on the August primary ballot, with former Rep. Peter Meijer and businessman Sandy Pensler among the seven Republicans who have filed with the Federal Election Commission. But former Detroit police chief James Craig bowed out this week, and the April 23 deadline to get the necessary signatures could winnow the field even further. — Zach C. Cohen
Florida: What’s the Rush?
The Florida Supreme Court brushed aside a motion to expedite a suit challenging the state’s congressional map, likely sticking voters with the current lines through the 2024 elections.
Minority voting groups allege that Gov. Ron DeSantis’ map (R) illegally diminished Black voting power by redrawing the northern Florida district that had sent former Rep. Al Lawson (D) to Congress. Under new lines Lawson lost to Rep. Neal Dunn (R) in 2022.
Rejecting the fast track, the justices will now have months to decide whether they agree with the trial court. It said the map violates the state’s anti-racial gerrymandering laws; but the court of appeals reversed, ruling Black voting communities weren’t compact enough in northern Florida to bring a case. — Alex Ebert
WISCONSIN: ‘Veto His Own Maps?’
After fighting for years to alter Wisconsin’s Republican-gerrymandered legislative maps, Gov. Tony Evers (D) has a rare problem: he’s getting what he asked for.
Republican lawmakers sent Evers legislation adopting new Assembly and Senate maps that the two-term governor wanted in an effort to end litigation in which the state Supreme Court could enact even more Democrat-favoring lines.
If Evers signs the bills he’d thwart a GOP legislative supermajority but also forestall the slight possibility of maps that could give liberals a shot at controlling the legislature.
“Democrats were champing at the bit to have these maps six months ago, now they wish they had a chance to get a better court-approved map,” said Jay Heck, executive director or Common Cause in Wisconsin and a backer of the legislation. “C’mon. What’s he going to do, veto his own maps?” — Alex Ebert
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